Namibian Leopards: What the Numbers Say
Namibia’s leopard population was estimated at 11,733 in 2019. Most live on freehold farmland and communal conservancies rather than in national parks, and densities are low by African standards because the country is arid., the dry winter. Rainfall is near zero, wildlife concentrates at Etosha’s waterholes, and roads are at their best. July and August are the peak — and the coldest, near 6 °C at dawn.
Leopards are the animal people most want to see and least often do. Namibia is a good place to try, but not for the reason the brochures give — and one of the most repeated claims about Namibian leopards turns out to be contradicted by the country’s own carnivore authority.
The numbers, and what changed between them
Three national estimates exist. A 2003 assessment by Hanssen and Stander, cited in Namibia’s own CITES submission, put the population at 8,039 with a confidence interval of 5,469 to 10,610. Dr Andrew Stein’s 2011 national census gave 14,154. The most recent, the 2019 National Leopard Project led by Dr Louisa Richmond-Coggan, gave 11,733.
Read straight, that looks like a fall of nearly 2,500 animals in eight years. The researchers do not read it that way — the 2019 figure drew on camera-trap studies, 392 freehold-farmer questionnaires, conservancy game-guard records, citizen-science sightings and ministry permit data, and the difference is attributed to a better method rather than a real decline. That caveat comes from the same team that produced the number, which is worth knowing, but it is the best available reading.
The claim that does not survive checking
Namibia is routinely described as holding one of the largest leopard populations in Africa. That line could not be traced to any authoritative Namibian source. The Carnivore Red Data Book species account — the standing authority — says the opposite: Namibian leopard densities are still very low overall, against South African figures of 7.51 to 18.8 per 100 km² inside national parks and 2.49 outside them. The reason given is simple. Namibia is arid and semi-arid, and arid land carries less prey.
Notably, neither NAPHA’s own leopard page nor the conservancy pages that might be expected to repeat the claim actually make it. It appears to be tourism copy that acquired authority through repetition.
Where they actually are
This is the useful part, and it is not what most people assume. Namibia’s core leopard population sits on freehold farmland and communal conservancies, not in the national parks — particularly in Kunene, where prey is available and competition from other large predators is lower. The Red Data Book is explicit that freehold farmland holds the core population, that conservancies are second, and that national parks carry lower densities.
AfriCat’s own research at Okonjima records the trajectory on one property: 5.56 leopards per 100 km² in 1998, rising to 14.5 in the 2015–16 study, described at the time as the highest recorded density in Namibia, with 39 individually identified leopards on the reserve as of late 2024.
Territory, and why that matters to you
A study in north-eastern Namibia recorded male home ranges from 18.3 to 451.2 square kilometres and female ranges from 9.2 to 224. Serengeti males hold 33 to 38 square kilometres. A Namibian leopard may be using an area a hundred times larger than its East African equivalent, because in this country that is how much land it takes to find enough food.
That single fact explains the sighting odds better than anything else. Add nocturnality — the Red Data Book describes them hunting alone at night, active dusk to dawn and resting through the day — and the arithmetic is unforgiving. Sources disagree even on how big they are: one southern African range gives males at 20 to 45 kg, while a Namibian conservancy page gives females at 20 to 60 kg and males up to 74 kg. No Namibia-specific weight study was found.
Leopards accounted for 8% of reported human-wildlife conflict incidents nationally, behind hyenas at 19%, jackals at 13% and cheetahs at 10%. Across 79 communal conservancies between 2001 and 2019, 1,415 problem animals of all species were killed or trapped. No leopard-specific kill count is published, so treat any figure you see claiming one with suspicion.
If seeing one matters, weight the itinerary towards private reserves where individuals are known rather than towards the big parks — though Etosha does produce leopard, usually at dawn or dusk or by scanning trees through the middle of the day. A fifteen-day route gives enough nights in the right places for the odds to mean something. Our 12-day Namibia in Style fly-in does that at the luxury end, finishing in Okonjima’s leopard country after NamibRand, the Skeleton Coast, the Hartmann Valley and Onguma. The wider picture of how these populations are managed sits in our guide to Namibia’s wildlife conservation.
Frequently asked questions
How many leopards are there in Namibia?
The most recent national estimate is 11,733, from the 2019 National Leopard Project led by Dr Louisa Richmond-Coggan. Earlier estimates were 14,154 in 2011 and 8,039 in 2003. The researchers attribute the change between 2011 and 2019 to better methodology rather than a population crash.
Does Namibia have one of the largest leopard populations in Africa?
That claim could not be traced to any authoritative Namibian source, and the Carnivore Red Data Book contradicts it — it states Namibian leopard densities are still very low overall compared with South Africa, because Namibia is arid and less productive.
Where do Namibia’s leopards actually live?
Mostly on freehold farmland and communal conservancies rather than in national parks. Recorded densities on private and freehold land run to 14.5 per 100 km² at Okonjima and 3.6 in north-east Omaruru, against 1.0 at Waterberg.
How big is a Namibian leopard’s territory?
Very large by African standards. A north-eastern Namibia study recorded male home ranges of 18.3 to 451.2 km² and female ranges of 9.2 to 224 km². In the Serengeti, males hold 33 to 38 km². Aridity is the reason.
Is leopard hunting legal in Namibia?
The leopard is on CITES Appendix I. Namibia holds an export quota of 250 per year, set under the permit system introduced in 2011, and it has never been reached — the highest recorded offtake was 161 in 2017, with a 27% success rate averaged over 2016 to 2018.
What are the chances of seeing one?
Low, and nobody publishes a real figure. Leopards are nocturnal, solitary and hold enormous territories here. The best odds are at private reserves where individuals are known and some are collared — Okonjima had 39 individually identified leopards in late 2024 — but even there sightings are never guaranteed.
Desert Tracks plans Namibian routes without promising sightings nobody can promise. Tell us what you most want to see and we will tell you honestly where the odds are best. Tell us what you want out of the trip rather than when you can travel, and we will tell you honestly whether your dates fit — including when the answer is that they do not. Get in touch with Desert Tracks.